PhD Scholar
Fish Communities in the Murray-Darling Basin: Developing Predictive Models for Improved Science and Decision Making
E-mail: serena.chen@anu.edu.au

Bayesian networks are increasingly being used in ecological modelling as they are able to integrate different sources of evidence and different system processes, represent uncertainties in knowledge and inherently variable environments, and explicitly link ecological outcomes with management activities and system changes. This PhD project will involve the development of a Bayesian network model for predicting the ecological condition of river systems in selected Victorian catchments in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB), using native fish communities as an indicator. Fish communities are considered a good indicator of the ecological condition of river systems due to their sensitivity to catchment disturbances and their ability to integrate several stream processes over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. The outcome of the project will be a decision support tool that will guide users in making better decisions about the management of the river systems, as well as examine changes in fish communities in response to system changes (such as alternative environmental flow and climate scenarios), and alternative catchment management activities (such as rehabilitation of riparian zones). The model can also be used to identify key knowledge gaps, target monitoring and prioritise investments in catchment management.